Each day we make thousands
of decisions.
Most are fairly insignificant,
such as what to have for lunch or what to wear.
Others carry weight and
consequences. Complicating things is our access to information; a simple Google
search produces a million results in a split second, and that can lead to
analysis paralysis.
As the former deputy
director of the CIA’s Counterterrorist Center and FBI’s National Security
Branch, he has gathered information and made recommendations about some of the
world’s biggest threats to national safety.
During his 25 years
working for the government, Mudd developed a system for analyzing complex data
and assessing risk.
While some of the
decisions he made involved life and death, he contends that all complex
decisions—government and civil—are major.
"Whether you're
combating terrorists or managing a pension fund, decisions should be made in
similar ways," he says. "Before you say your decisions aren’t
profound, stop. Is it really soulless if it affects people’s lives?"
1. FIND THE REAL QUESTION
People often focus on the wrong question because they
assume questions are self-evident, says Mudd. Focusing on better questions up
front yields better answers later.
"Good questions are
hard to come up with," he says. "We typically overinvest our time in
analyzing problems by jumping right to the data and the conclusions, while
under-investing in thinking about exactly what it is we want to know."
The right question
provides a decision advantage to the person at the head of the table. Mudd says
you can find the right question by looking backwards. Start with what you’re
trying to accomplish and work your way back, instead of moving forward and
making conclusions.
2. IDENTIFY YOUR
"DRIVERS"
Since our minds have a hard time juggling too much
information, break down complex questions into characteristics or
"drivers." This approach gives you a way to manage data.
When Mudd was working for
the CIA, for example, he would sort data on Al Qaeda into information baskets
that included money, recruits, leadership, communications, training, and access
to weapons.
When information flows in,
rather than adding it to one unmanageable pile, sorting through it
periodically, and offering a recitation of what appears to be relevant from the
most recent stuff you’ve seen, file each bit into one of your baskets, says
Mudd.
He recommends limiting
your drivers to 10 to best control the information.
3. DECIDE ON YOUR METRICS
Once the question and drivers have been identified,
decide what metrics you’ll use to measure how the problem and solution are
evolving over time.
Mudd suggests comparing
your thought process to the training process of an Olympic sprinter who
measures success in hundredths of a second.
"If we don’t, the
analysis we provide will suffer the same fate as a sprinter who thinks he’s
great but has never owned a stopwatch: he enters an elite competition, and
reality intervenes," he says.
Metrics provide a
"mind mirror"—a system for judging your decisions. It provides a
foundation for coming back to the table and assessing the process for success.
4. COLLECT THE DATA
Once you’ve built the framework that will help you
make the hard decision, it’s time to gather the data. Overcome data overload by
plugging data into their driver categories and excising anything that doesn't
fit, says Mudd.
"Too much data might
provide a false sense of security, and it doesn’t necessarily lead to clearer
analytic decision making," says Mudd
Aggressively question the
validity of your data. Once you have your data sorted, give yourself a grade
that represents your confidence in assessing your question.
5. LOOK FOR WHAT’S MISSING
Complex analysis isn’t easy, says Mudd; you must
assume that the process is flawed and check for gaps and errors.
He says three common
stumbling blocks are:
Availability bias: The instinct to rely on what
you know or what has been most recently in the news.
Halo effect: When you write off the negative
characteristics because you’re mesmerized by the positive attributes.
Intuitive versus analytic methodologies: when
you go with your gut.
"I hate
intuition," says Mudd. "It’s dangerous and it makes me nervous."
Mudd says making complex decisions is hard work. "It’s a lot of fun to be
an expert who bases their ideas on history and not a lot of fun to be an
analyst who must always be assessing potential scenarios," he says.
"Every time you go
into a problem, and before you rip into data, ask yourself, ‘Am I sure where
I’m heading?
Response Magic 
